A signal amid the noise
Because you gotta know when to walk away, and know when to run.
Quick: Think about a time when you were absolutely sure of something happening, but it didn’t. I’m sure you can think of an example or two, like civilization’s collapse at the turn of the last century (remember the Y2K hysteria?), or a power outage you were sure would happen during a major storm, or your favorite team winning a game or making the playoffs. Or a test you were sure you aced, but failed. Or dinner with an old friend that you were certain would be awesome but ended up worse than Ishtar. Or a new recipe you tried but didn’t quite come out like it did in the cookbook.
A brief aside: I have perhaps a billion cookbooks. Some are text-only (yeah, I’m talking about you, How to Cook Everything) but my favorites are the ones with full color, full-page, text light, Instagram-worthy food smut. I tear through those like a greasy-pawed toddler, pointing and yelling “Dat! Dat one! Dat!” at recipe photos that look amazing. But I have never - not once - managed to reproduce the recipe shown in the photo.
If you’ve read Rolf Dobelli’s marvelous book, The Art of Thinking Clearly, you’ll know that the human brain is a messy, frivolous trickster constantly trying to throw us off our game. Dobelli identifies 99 ways our brain shortcircuits our ability to make a good decision. Ninety-Nine ways! This includes phenomena like the conjunction fallacy, omission bias, social loafing, the halo effect, the Gambler’s Fallacy (which, I was sad to learn, is not what happens when you think you sing like Kenny Rogers), base-rate neglect, the endowment effect, and so on.
So if your own brain is short-circuiting your decision-making ability, especially predictions about the future, even in situations when you’re absolutely certain that you’re right - what’s a fundraiser to do? There are so many ideas to pursue, so many potential donors to reach, and so many programs to implement.
If this seems overwhelming to you, you could do one of two things. 1) Start stress-baking like crazy (though in my experience you just end up pissed off at your cookbook photos). Or if that sounds counterproductive, try 2) Implement extreme criteria in how you pursue your fundraising efforts. By that I mean, if a fundraising effort isn’t going to be a clear win for you or your organization, then it’s a clear “no”.
Here’s how extreme criteria work in practice:
First, write down a fundraising idea, event, or the name of a major donor prospect.
Next, think about the single most important criterion for activating that decision. That could be total dollars raised, new additions to your mailing list, new 1st time donors, or the size of a potential major gift. It doesn’t matter but you must choose a single criterion.
Then imagine the best-case outcome for your idea. Everything goes perfectly, your event is a smash hit, your prospect makes the biggest gift you’ve ever received (and empties his DAF in the process, a cosmic win), and you’ve succeeded in reaching fundraiser nirvana.
Now, discount the likelihood of that outcome by 25%. Or if you’re up for more extreme criteria, discount by 50%.
If your imagined best-case scenario falls below your criteria for pursuing the idea (derived in “step 2” above), reject it, and move on.
Our ability to predict the future is clouded by forces beyond our control, exacerbated by the tricks played on us by our own brains. We can, however, reduce wasted effort by implementing clear, objective hurdles to clear before moving ahead with new fundraising initiatives.
Kenny Rogers said it best, “You gotta know when to walk away.” And in some cases, know when to run. Extreme criteria can help make those decisions easier.